Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service has warned that Russia may deploy warships to escort its shadow fleet of oil tankers through Danish waters, which could increase tensions with NATO countries. This comes as Western nations step up sanctions against Russia's oil industry, a key contributor to its war chest.

The West has been tightening restrictions on Russia's oil trade, with the EU and UK recently expanding sanctions on vessels in Russia's "dark fleet" that dodge the G7 oil price cap. A group of Western countries also agreed to enhance checks on insurance coverage for suspected shadow tankers transporting Russian oil.

Russia's shadow fleet of mostly aging oil tankers has grown since the G7 imposed an oil price cap in December 2022. This fleet has helped Russia circumvent Western restrictions and continue selling oil at market prices. However, Russia's oil revenues fell 24% last year due to sanctions and continue to be under pressure in 2024.

The increased pressure on Russia's energy trade aims to further strain the country's finances after nearly three years of war in Ukraine. While Russia has built strong financial buffers, its economy faces growing challenges including high inflation, a weak ruble, and record-high interest rates. The lucrative oil industry is also under pressure from global energy market dynamics.

Denmark's warning highlights the potential for increased maritime tensions as Russia seeks to protect its vital oil export routes in the face of tightening Western sanctions. The situation underscores the ongoing economic impact of the war in Ukraine and efforts to restrict Russia's ability to fund its military operations.