ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods has cast doubt on the feasibility of a rapid increase in US oil production, contrary to claims made by President-elect Donald Trump. In a recent interview with Semafor, Woods stated that the US oil market is currently well-supplied, with limited opportunities for significant production increases in the near term.

Trump's campaign promises included plans to dramatically boost US oil production and lower energy prices, with statements like "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill" and pledges to cut energy prices by half within a year. However, Woods' comments suggest that such ambitious goals may face market realities that are not easily overcome.

The US is already producing record amounts of oil, with 2023 seeing production of 12.9 million barrels of crude per day, up from about 11 million barrels daily in 2020. The Energy Information Administration projects this figure to rise to 13.5 million barrels per day by 2025. Despite this growth, Woods indicated that there isn't much room for immediate expansion.

Energy analysts point out that the global nature of the oil market limits any US president's ability to directly influence oil or gasoline prices. Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, emphasized that while US production is expected to increase, it will likely be a gradual process.

Woods did mention potential long-term opportunities for additional production in areas such as the Gulf of Mexico, where federal leasing restrictions have limited drilling activities. However, he also expressed support for climate initiatives, including the Paris Agreement and Biden's limits on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, indicating a more nuanced approach to energy policy than what Trump has proposed.

The CEO's statements highlight the complex interplay between political promises, market dynamics, and environmental considerations in the energy sector. As the industry continues to navigate these challenges, it appears that any significant changes in US oil production are likely to be more measured and gradual than some political rhetoric might suggest.